Inspired by the work of professional decision strategist Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets helps organisations make better choices under uncertainty. It reframes decisions not as right or wrong, but as probabilities to be managed and learned from.
In our version, it becomes a practical decision-making framework for fundraisers and leadership teams. It separates outcome from process, helping people act with confidence even when the future is uncertain.
Why we like this tool
Fundraisers, and nonprofits more widely, often operate in conditions of ambiguity, reacting fast and hoping for the best. Thinking in Bets slows that down and turns instinct into insight.
We use it at Fundraiser In The Room because it:
Encourages teams to make decisions based on likelihood, not luck.
Builds psychological safety by treating mistakes as data, not blame.
Helps fundraisers assess options through the lens of risk and reward.
Strengthens governance by aligning evidence, judgement and timing.
Creates a habit of reflection that compounds into better strategic calls.
It’s a mindset shift as much as a method. When teams start treating every decision as a learning opportunity, confidence replaces caution and progress becomes measurable.